Floogle—epidemic warnings from a search engine
They have noticed that the number of people making queries like ‘flu symptoms’ is strongly correlated with the number of doctors visits due to the flu in that region.Google explain their work...
View ArticleClimate scientists publish latest view of risk
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set up in 1990 and its first report arguably led to the creation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC). From...
View ArticleA gift from realclimate.org
Realclimate.org is my favorite global warming blog. They describe themselves as a “commentary site on climate science by working climate scientists”. They provide an invaluable service by providing...
View ArticleShaping climate-resilient development – the case for utility theory
The Economics of Climate Adaptation (ECA) Working Group has published a report titled “shaping climate resilient development“. It is an excellent report and focussed around a series of case studies....
View ArticleHindsight’s a wonderful thing…
…or is it?The Emerging Risks Team at Lloyd’s has just published a new report on Behavioural Risks. The report looks at a whole variety of typical biases in human thought processes – and suggests that...
View ArticleIt's life Jim but not as we know it
Late last week Craig Ventner, founder of company Synthetic Genomics announced the stunning news that his research group have created life starting from basic ingredients. He sums it up perfectly when...
View ArticleScience of Risk
To this end, along with partners, we created the Lighthill Risk Network which has promoted debate on topics ranging from nanotechnology to cyber crime.This year Lloyd's has launched its first annual...
View ArticleDice seriously underestimating risk
That’s an average of two.Frankly I can't believe it.I expected an average of 3.5.My die is seriously underestimating risk.I'm off to buy another one that works...With the above in mind, consider this...
View ArticleHurricanes and errors of reasoning?
One of the topics discussed related to the "medium term" view of hurricane risk. The crux of this debate is whether hurricane activity is elevated above long term average rates for some reason. The...
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Hurricanes and errors of reasoning? Again...
This time they relate to Karen Clark's presentation.First she makes the comment: "Models Can't…Predict Near Term Catastrophe Losses". In my previous blog post Dice seriously underestimating risk, I...
View ArticleTen steps to cyber security
The factsheet, 10 steps to Cyber Security, produced by the UK government, gives straightforward advice on protecting your business. Simple things such as setting up policies on removable media (e.g....
View ArticleTackling cyber threat together
This pilot involving 160 companies across five sectors is an excellent step forward in the task to understand cyber risks. Lloyd's has been monitoring cyber risks for a number of years - indeed this...
View ArticleClimate Change: The future is in our hands
I find it fascinating that the consensus around this has grown since 1995 from just 50%. The laws of physics haven’t changed over this period and nor has our general understanding of them: carbon...
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Food security - recognised by The City
Alderman Fiona Wolfe, the Lord Mayor of London, along with Dr Julie Maxton, the Executive Director of the Royal Society, awarded the prize at a fascinating evening where companies large and small were...
View ArticleCatastrophe modelling and climate change
Today Lloyd's is publishing a report on the impact of climate change on current catastrophe models. The emerging risks team at Lloyd’s was delighted to work with modelling experts who have each...
View ArticleClimate model uncertainity
The report, Climate Model Uncertainty, is quite technical and describes the types of uncertainty that are currently (and probably unavoidably) contained in these supercomputer models. I was involved in...
View ArticleHuman impacts of climate change
The problem is, four degrees doesn't sound so bad. Many people would like things a bit warmer, particularly on a typical miserable raining English summer day, the likes of which we have been lucky to...
View Article"Will UK climate change policies make us better or worse off"?
The answer they feel, even based on conservative assumptions, is "better off". The approach taken is heartening. Most economic models are so called ‘general equilibrium models’ which tend to assume...
View ArticleDecisions based on evidence
The "Resilience to extreme weather" report notes that economic costs over recent years are estimated at $ 1.4 trillion and that these are likely to increase due to climate change. It is good to see...
View ArticleTaking a risk based approach to climate change: New FCO sponsored report
The studyClimate Change: A Risk Assessment proposes a new risk based view put forward by contributions from a variety of specialists including military, finance and science from the UK, US, China and...
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